To win consistently in betting, there's no way around it other than equipping yourself with knowledge and understanding how to analyze football betting odds to make the most accurate predictions.
The methods we share below are somewhat more advanced.
If you're new to this, consider checking out beginner's guides betting tips accurate to sports betting to grasp the basics first.
What are bookmaker odds?
Bookmaker odds are the betting odds (sports betting odds in general) calculated and offered by bookmakers for players to place bets on.
There are several basic types of online football betting odds: handicap odds, over/under odds, total goals (over/under), Asian Handicap, corner kick odds, yellow card odds, correct score odds, etc.
Each type of odds requires a different approach to analysis.
Having a strategy to accurately predict odds will help you make informed decisions on your bets and place them wisely.
Depending on the type of odds, you'll need to study each analysis method below.
Analyzing football odds when betting on the underdog
Only when you're willing to bet on the underdog and prefer being in that position can you truly mature in betting.
Betting on the underdog means the winning odds have been increased by 50% as betting on the underdog indicates better control over the match.
If you feel unsafe betting on the underdog during a match, you can switch to betting on the favorite, giving you a chance to win either way.
Betting on the underdog also serves as a gateway to enhancing your experience in betting effectively on fluctuating odds.
Ways to analyze underdog football odds and their advantages:
️#1. Analyzing football odds when the away team is given a ¼ handicap
In cases where the home team is handicapped -¼ or -0.25, you need to understand why the bookmaker sets the odds like this.
You must interpret the odds reasoning like this:
Both home and away teams have equal strength.
The home team must be handicapped -0.25 due to the advantage of playing at home.
The home team's winning odds at 0.94 are high, meaning the bookmaker wants to attract players to this bet.
The away team's odds at 0.87 are low, meaning the bookmaker wants players to avoid this bet.
The over/under 2 goals odds at 0.90 are relatively high (90% or more is considered high).
The Asian Handicap odds for a draw (X) at 1.94 are reasonable, indicating the likelihood of a draw.
️#2. Analyzing football odds when the home team is handicapped by 1.5 or more
This scenario often occurs in major European championships, where top teams face lower-ranked opponents.
For instance, Newcastle playing against Manchester City, Getafe playing against Barcelona, Spezia playing against Juventus, etc.
In such matches, the away team is significantly stronger, so the handicap is usually set high, sometimes unreasonably so given the actual form of the players.
Additionally, factors like weather conditions, unfamiliar pitches, player fitness before the match are uncertain, but bookmakers still set deep handicaps.
To win such types of bets, besides mastering how to analyze football odds, you must diligently update yourself with betting tips sites , read reports, and attend press conferences of the respective teams before the match.
How to Analyze Bookmakers' Odds When Following Odds
To have a good understanding of analyzing football odds, you should only analyze the odds one hour before the match begins. By then, the bookmakers have usually stabilized the odds, and there are no continuous fluctuations as during the day. At that time, three scenarios may occur:
#1. Odds increase - higher handicap - lower odds
If the odds increase again, with a higher handicap or lower odds compared to the previous day's odds:
Underdog team: experiencing lineup changes; key player injuries; coach dismissal; internal conflicts; FIFA suspensions; etc.
Favored team: fielding their strongest lineup; in peak form; favorable weather conditions; compatible with the favored team's playing style.
The correct way to analyze the odds at this time is:
Place a bet on the favored team if playing offline, or consider online betting but do not rush to place bets, wait for the match to progress for 10 minutes.
After 10 minutes, the odds for the favored team will decrease over time, and then bet on the favored team.
If the odds for the favored team in the first half do not decrease much or remain unchanged, pay attention to betting in the first half.
In the second half, if the score is still uncertain and the favored team has not earned enough, continue betting in the second half.
#2. Odds decrease - lower handicap - higher odds
At this point, the favored team has been evaluated lower or the underdog team has been evaluated higher compared to the odds from the previous day. This results in a decrease in the odds and an increase in odds for the favored team. In this situation:
Underdog team: in good form; full and highest quality lineup; etc.
Favored team: players injured; fielding a weakened lineup; coach dismissed; internal conflicts; key players sent off; etc.
Unfavorable weather conditions for the favored team's style of play.
How to analyze bookmakers' odds in this situation:
If playing offline and odds are unfavorable, skip the bet for this match.
When betting online, wait for the official lineup, assess the team's strength compared to the initial expectations, and consider the weather conditions.
It's best to skip betting in the first half, wait until the second half, and assess the score:
If the score is tied: Skip handicap betting, wait for the over/under odds to drop to 1 goal and then bet Over 1, watch for changes in the second half.
If the favored team leads by 1 goal: Skip handicap betting, wait for the over/under odds to drop, and consider changes around the 70th minute.
If the favored team trails by 1 goal: Bet on handicap, if the favored team is handicapped from 0.5 to 0.75 then bet. Watch for changes around the 70th minute regardless of the score at that time.
#3. Technique for analyzing football odds when the favored team is handicapped in reverse
This seemingly illogical case often occurs in grass football leagues. The initially favored team becomes the underdog just before kick-off, typically 30 minutes before the match. Those who play offline are at a disadvantage as they cannot react in time. We advise you to have an online bookmaker account to avoid such disadvantages.
The most accurate formula for analyzing football odds with 5 NOTs
Every time you engage in any activity, you should grasp a little experience from those who have gone before you. We also have 5 things to share, which will help you a lot in winning this betting game.
Reevaluate what mistakes you might be making below and correct them:
#1. NOT analyzing bookmakers' odds when not sober
This is a reminder to those who are intoxicated and yet still enjoy looking at football odds on their phones. Whether you have a lot or a little money in your account, it's still money. Absolutely do not place football bets when not sober. That's when you lose control, your mind is confused, emotions dominate, and you make impulsive decisions.
#2. NOT betting on what you don't know
If there are things you don't know or haven't researched, you should not get involved to avoid losing money. For example:
Matches of unfamiliar teams.
Odds fluctuating continuously before and during the match.
Stable odds with no movement, which is illogical.
Matches with only 30-40 minutes per half or matches with 3 halves (usually friendlies).
Matches that are postponed and then replayed.
High handicap bets, handicaps of 3 or more.
High over/under bets, Over/Under 4 goals or more.
#3. NOT following the crowd when analyzing bookmakers' odds
This means avoiding overly favorable odds, where everyone can tell how to analyze football odds.
#4. NOT chasing losses in any form
The shortest path to burning your account is chasing losses. Even if you have a method for betting or analyzing bookmakers' odds, playing recklessly will only result in losing your account. You can never predict how many games you will lose.
#5. NOT betting randomly, betting without accurate analysis
This situation is problematic whether you win or lose. When you win, you want to bet more to win more. When you lose, you want to bet more to recover quickly. Reflect on yourself, and you will inevitably encounter this situation regardless of whether you play frequently or infrequently.
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Closing words:
Learning how to analyze football odds to minimize losses and achieve a 60% win rate is already a way to make money. In this betting profession, never consider yourself a master or expert because anything can happen. Winning and losing are normal occurrences. Set strict rules for yourself, only bet on sure bets.